| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Global warming has been an important issue in recent decades, and greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, are one of the most significant causes of climate change. Given the crucial role of carbon dioxide in climate change, identifying the factors affecting its emission can help design effective strategies to reduce greenhouse gases and combat global warming. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to determine the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions with an emphasis on the agricultural sector. For this purpose, the required information was collected from 1990 to 2022. After examining the stationarity of the variables, a short-term and long-term pattern was estimated using the ARDL model. The results of this study showed that, in the short and long term, crop, livestock, and forest production, along with energy consumption and population growth, have a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Also, although temperature does not have an effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the short term, its increase in the long term can lead to a reduction in emissions. In the long term, increasing temperatures can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by stimulating environmental policies, improving technology, and changing consumer behavior, while such an effect is not observed in the short term. Additionally, increasing rainfall will lead to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in both the short and long term. These findings indicate the important role of climate and water resources in managing greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development in Iran. Given the positive impact of crop, livestock, and forestry production on carbon dioxide emissions, it is suggested that production efficiency in these sectors be increased by using modern and low-carbon technologies, and that sustainable agricultural practices be promoted. Given the positive impact of energy consumption and population growth on CO₂ emissions, optimizing energy consumption, expanding renewable energies, and managing consumption, along with population planning, can be effective in reducing emissions. Also, considering the long-term role of temperature in reducing emissions, supporting environmental policies and promoting public awareness for climate change adaptation is recommended. Finally, considering the reducing role of precipitation on emissions, the protection of water resources and agricultural development based on the optimal use of atmospheric precipitation should be considered. |