| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
The variations in groundwater quantitative and qualitative parameters in Minab Plain, as well as their past, present, and future, were examined for which new scenarios of use increase (5%, 10%, and 15% higher use) were used in GMS10.5. Then, the IMDPA model was employed to assess the rate of desertification of groundwater tables in the plain in the past, present, and future. The highest increase in water level balance over 2003-2035 has been -59.5, -61.3, and -63.2 m under the scenarios of 5%, 10%, and 15% higher use, respectively. Predictions of the qualitative parameters of EC and SAR in 2019, 2024, 2029, and 2035 indicate that these parameters will increase in the groundwater in 2035. Accordingly, it can be asserted that a great part of the region is in the low desertification class in the base period, but the area of this class decreases, the area of the moderate desertification class expands over time so that the moderate desertification class has been 0, 32.37, 46.35, and 123,48 km2 while the area of the very low desertification class has been 125.93, 6.54, 0.23, and 0.07 km2 in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018, respectively. In the scenario of 5% higher use, the very low, low, and moderate desertification classes have decreased by 2.64, 45.47, and 72.04 km2 over 2009-2035 whereas the severe desertification class has increased by 120.14 km2 in this scenario. The same holds for the scenarios of 10% and 15% higher use so that the very low, low, and moderate desertification classes have decreased by 0.06, 72.18, and 48.00 km2 in the scenario of 10% higher use and by 47.96, 0.06, and 72.14 km2 in the scenario of 15% higher use over 2019-2035 while the severe desertification class has increased by 120.189 and 120.187 km2 in these scenarios, respectively. |
| کلیدواژههای انگلیسی مقاله |
EC index, foresight, groundwater criterion, groundwater depletion index, Minab Plain, SAR index |