این سایت در حال حاضر پشتیبانی نمی شود و امکان دارد داده های نشریات بروز نباشند
Journal of Medical Signals and Sensors، جلد ۱۲، شماره ۲، صفحات ۹۵-۱۰۷
عنوان فارسی
چکیده فارسی مقاله
کلیدواژه‌های فارسی مقاله
عنوان انگلیسی Statistical inference of COVID-19 outbreak: Delay distribution effect in EQIR modeling of epidemic
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Background: The world is experiencing another pandemic called COVID-19. Several mathematical models have been proposed to examine the impact of health interventions in controlling pandemic growth. Method: In this study, we propose a fractional order distributed delay dynamic system, namely, EQIR model. In order to predict the outbreak, the proposed model incorporates changes in transmission rate, isolation rate, and identification of infected people through time varying deterministic and stochastic parameters. Furthermore, proposed stochastic model considers fluctuations in population behavior and simulates different scenarios of outbreak at the same time. Main novelty of this model is its ability to incorporate changes in transmission rate, latent periods, and rate of quarantine through time varying deterministic and stochastic assumptions. This model can exactly follow the disease trend from its beginning to current situation and predict outbreak future for various situations. Results: Parameters of this model were identified during fitting process to real data of Iran, USA, and South Korea. We calculated the reproduction number using a Laplace transform-based method. Results of numerical simulation verify the effectiveness and accuracy of proposed deterministic and stochastic models in current outbreak. Conclusion: Justifying of parameters of the model emphasizes that, although stricter deterrent interventions can prevent another peak and control the current outbreak, the consecutive screening schemes of COVID-19 plays more important role. This means that the more diagnostic tests performed on people, the faster the disease will be controlled.
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله COVID-19, EQIR epidemic model, fractional differential equation, stochastic differential equation
نویسندگان مقاله | Mahnoosh Tajmirriahi
Medical Image and Signal Processing Research Center, School of Advanced Technologies in Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran


| Zahra Amini
Medical Image and Signal Processing Research Center, School of Advanced Technologies in Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran


| Rahele Kafieh
Medical Image and Signal Processing Research Center, School of Advanced Technologies in Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran


| Hossein Rabbani
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, California, United States


| Ali Mirzazadeh
Applied Physiology Research Center, Isfahan Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran


| Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard


نشانی اینترنتی http://jmss.mui.ac.ir/index.php/jmss/article/view/611
فایل مقاله فایلی برای مقاله ذخیره نشده است
کد مقاله (doi)
زبان مقاله منتشر شده en
موضوعات مقاله منتشر شده
نوع مقاله منتشر شده Original Articles
برگشت به: صفحه اول پایگاه   |   نسخه مرتبط   |   نشریه مرتبط   |   فهرست نشریات