| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Within the framework of a social approach to foreign policy analysis, it is essential to recognize that the members of a society are not passive entities. Instead, they play an active role in interpreting social phenomena—such as their nation’s foreign relations and international affairs—and in shaping the realities surrounding these issues. These constructed realities can become deeply ingrained in the collective consciousness, influencing outcomes like public judgments about relations with specific countries or expectations for foreign policy in particular domains. As a result, citizens’ views and attitudes—especially those of societal elites—toward the role and presence of a foreign nation can significantly impact the formulation of their own country’s foreign policy. Using a descriptive-analytical approach, this article aims to address the following question: “What are the views of Iranian elites on China’s role in Iran and globally across the domains of economics, socio-cultural affairs, and political-security matters?” Given China’s significance in the foreign relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran, this research has two primary objectives: first, to assist policymakers in understanding elite perspectives on China, and second, to facilitate the development of a foreign policy toward China that prioritizes Iran’s national interests. Our hypothesis regarding the research question is that Iranian elites’ views of China in the economic, socio-cultural, and political-security spheres are not uniform or situated at the same level. Instead, these attitudes vary depending on factors such as the sensitivity of each domain, China’s performance within them, and Iranians’ firsthand experiences and observations. To explore this hypothesis, we adopted an attitude-measurement method. A group of Iranian elites active in economics, media, and politics participated in an online questionnaire designed using a Likert-scale attitude-measurement format. The questionnaire was structured around the three domains—economic, socio-cultural, and political-security—and included items categorized under four key variables: performance, trust, importance, and opportunity. These variables were analyzed at both domestic and international levels to provide a comprehensive assessment of elite attitudes. In this study, the “performance” variable refers to the realities as perceived by the respondents. Specifically, it includes their evaluations of China’s achievements to date in the economic, political, and social domains, as well as their projections of potential actions by China or Iran in the future. In contrast, the “trust” variable captures respondents’ expectations and perceptions of China’s role and presence—both as an external actor in Iran and on the global stage. Naturally, given the differing levels of sensitivity across these areas, elite expectations vary accordingly. The “importance” variable examines the mutual standing of Iran and China in relation to one another. Considering Iran’s position within the international system, this variable evaluates whether, given China’s status, maintaining relations with China across the economic, social, and political domains is necessary and advantageous for Iran. Lastly, the “opportunity” variable focuses on the potential benefits that China’s presence in Iran and on the global stage may provide—both currently and in the future—to the Islamic Republic of Iran. To comprehensively examine Iranian elites’ views of China, each of the four variables was analyzed across three domains: (1) economic, (2) cultural-social, and (3) political-security. Specific indicators were identified for each domain to ensure detailed analysis. In the economic domain, the indicators include goods, energy, technology, and the Belt and Road Initiative. In the cultural-social domain, the indicators encompass tourism, academic exchanges, and culture and the arts. In the political-security domain, the indicators focus on the region, international organizations, and major powers. The analysis was conducted at both domestic and international levels. A clear and accurate understanding of China is essential for aligning our expectations with the realities of its capabilities. In other words, this understanding helps us balance what China can realistically achieve in its relations with us—guided by its own national interests—against what we anticipate from it. This requires distinguishing between the various domains in which China operates within the international system. Economically, China is now one of the leading actors in the global economy. However, in the military, political, and cultural spheres, it continues to work toward strengthening its position. By acknowledging these distinctions, we can tailor our relations with China in the economic, political-security, and cultural-social domains to meet their unique demands and requirements. In today’s high-risk, opportunity-driven, and transitional world, understanding the actors capable of reshaping the international order and transforming the global political landscape is crucial for Iran’s foreign policy decision-making—particularly as Iran remains a vocal critic of the existing international system. In recent years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has shown significant alignment with China’s revisionist ambitions on the global stage through a strategic partnership. China has recently demonstrated its ability to shift the balance of power and assume a critical and constructive role within the international order. For Iran—an Asian nation seeking to challenge the status quo—this development is perceived as a strategic opportunity. However, the social dimension of this relationship deserves special attention. In this regard, all relevant social factors, including public and elite opinions in both countries, should be considered crucial areas of study. On one hand, the Islamic Republic of Iran must carefully analyze the behaviors and strategic actions of key actors in the emerging international order. On the other hand, it must depend on the resources and political will of both its elites and the broader public to craft a strategy that aligns with its current standing and its aspirations for the future. In general, there appears to be a sense of pessimism toward China within Iranian society. While this perception lacks robust academic support, it seems to be a widely held belief among a significant portion of the Iranian population. One of the objectives of this study, therefore, is to assess the extent of both pessimism and optimism toward China among Iranian elites, using four variables: “performance,” “trust,” “importance,” and “opportunity.” Extensive foreign relations with China, as a major global power, could provide Iran with numerous advantageous opportunities. However, it is important not to overlook the possibility that negative views of China among the Iranian public could limit foreign policy options. The objection raised by some sectors of Iranian society regarding the 25-year agreement between Iran and China is a case in point. As a result, Iranian policymakers must remain sensitive to societal concerns about China and, by emphasizing the potential benefits of deeper relations with China, help clarify to both elites and the public the advantages such a partnership could bring to Iran’s national interests. The conclusion of this article offers practical recommendations for shaping the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy toward China across the economic, cultural-social, and political-security domains. To bridge elite perspectives with policymaking decisions, we have utilized the concept of national interests. This concept serves as a link between elites—who represent Iranian society—and foreign policy decision-makers. “National interests” is both a term familiar to elites and a valuable tool for policymakers, as it can be seamlessly integrated into the process of foreign policy formulation. We argue that a key prerequisite for effective policymaking and the regulation of foreign relations—particularly in managing relations with a major power like China—is to focus on the criterion of national interests. Our goal is to present the insights derived from elite perspectives within the framework of “national interests,” using the language of international relations. |