| چکیده انگلیسی مقاله |
Background: In recent years, fertility in Iran has reached below the replacement level; decreasing marriage and increasing divorce rates are the most important reasons of this phenomenon. In this situation, remarriage can have an important effect on total fertility rate in addition to reducing various social and psychological harms of divorced women. Considering the importance of this issue, the aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the remarriage time of divorced women using survival frailty models.
Methods: In this study, the information from the marriage questionnaire of 448 divorced women who were on the verge of remarriage was used. The samples were randomly selected from among women who had referred to laboratories in provincial centers for premarital tests and whose data had been collected by the Civil Registration Organization of Iran, during 2017 and 2018. In this article, the effect of selected variables on the remarriage time of these women was investigated using survival frailty models.
Findings: According to the results, most of the women were in the age group of 20-40 years, unemployed, with consanguineous marriages, and the monthly income of the father's family of less than 2 million Tomans. Based on Akaike's criteria, the log-logistic model with gamma shared frailty was chosen as the final model. Based on this model, age, having a child from the first marriage, and the monthly income of the father's family had significant effects on the time of these women's remarriage.
Conclusion: Ignoring frailty in the analysis of data where there is similarity among people belonging to a certain group leads to misleading conclusion. According to the results, younger women, childless from their previous marriage, and with lower monthly income of their father's family remarried faster than other women. |
| نویسندگان مقاله |
مهسا سعادتی | Mahsa Saadati
Associate Professor, Department of Statistical Methods and Demographic Modeling, National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran
دانشیار، گروه روشهای آماری و مدلسازی جمعیت، مؤسسه تحقیقات جمعیت کشور، تهران، ایران
آرزو باقری | Arezoo Bagheri
Associate Professor, Department of Statistical Methods and Demographic Modeling, National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran
دانشیار، گروه روشهای آماری و مدلسازی جمعیت، مؤسسه تحقیقات جمعیت کشور، تهران، ایران
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