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Money and Economy، جلد ۱۵، شماره ۲، صفحات ۱۵۱-۱۸۰
عنوان فارسی بررسی اثر سیاست‌های پولی داخلی و خارجی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران در قالب یک مدل جهانی
چکیده فارسی مقاله ABSTRACT One of the most striking features of the business cycles across countries is the patterns of comovement of output, inflation, interest rates and real equity prices. Using quarterly data over the 1996Q1-2015Q5 period and a global vector regression model (GVAR) for Iran, the largest trading partners of Iran including China, India, Russian, Korea, Turkey, the European :union:, and the United States, this paper empirically examines the effects of domestic and foreign monetary policies on Iran's macroeconomic variables (including real production, inflation, short-term interest rate, real exchange rate). The results of domestic monetary policies on Iran's macroeconomic variables illustrate a form of puzzle price on how monetary policy shocks affect inflation in Iran. Also According to the results, the effects of the positive shocks of domestic interest rate on real GDP in Iran is negative. Based on the results, Iran's real exchange rate response to the positive shock of domestic interest rates of Iran is negative and significant. The results of foreign monetary policies on Iran's macroeconomic illuminate that only the effects of a positive shock to china interest rate are significant and negative on Iran's inflation. In addition, the results indicate a significant independency of Iran real GDP to the monetary policy shocks of the other trading partners of Iran. In addition, the response of Iran real exchange rate to positive shocks in EU and Turkey is at a positive and significant level. The results indicate the closed economic structure of Iran, to the point that global economic crises that lead to a recession in other countries have the least impact on the Iranian economy.    
کلیدواژه‌های فارسی مقاله سرریز جهانی- گلوبال ور - سیاست پولی
عنوان انگلیسی The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Monetary Policy on Iran's economy: Global Modeling
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله One of the striking features of the business cycles is the patterns of co-movement of output, inflation, interest rates, and real equity prices across countries. This paper empirically examines the effects of domestic and foreign monetary policies on Iran's macroeconomic variables (including real production, inflation, short-term interest rate, and real exchange rate) using quarterly data over the 1996Q1-2015Q4 period and a global vector auto-regression model (GVAR) for Iran, the largest trading partners of Iran including China, India, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, the European :union:, and the United State. The results of domestic monetary policies on Iran's macroeconomic variables illustrate a form of Price Puzzle on how monetary policy shocks affect inflation in Iran. The effects of the positive shocks of domestic interest rate on real GDP in Iran is negative. Iran's real exchange rate response to the positive shock of domestic interest rates is negative and significant. The results regarding the impact of the foreign monetary policies on Iran's macroeconomic variables illuminate that only the effects of a positive shock to China's interest rate are significant and negative on Iran's inflation. Besides, there is a significant independency of Iran's real GDP to the monetary policy shocks of the other trading partners of Iran. Also, the response of Iran's real exchange rate to positive monetary shocks in the EU and Turkey is at a positive and significant level. The results indicate that due to the closed economic structure of Iran, global economic crises that lead to a recession in other countries have had the least impact on the Iranian economy.
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله Global Spillover, Global VAR, Monetary Policy
نویسندگان مقاله سیمین اکبری دهباغی | Simin Akbari Dehbaghi
Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz


عزیز آرمن | Seyed Aziz Arman
Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz


مجید آهنگری | Majid Ahangari
Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
نشانی اینترنتی http://jme.mbri.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-383-1&slc_lang=en&sid=1
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زبان مقاله منتشر شده en
موضوعات مقاله منتشر شده اقتصاد
نوع مقاله منتشر شده پژوهشی اصیل - کاربردی
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